Fed’s Powell Again Stresses Patience as US Economy’s ‘Narrative’ Unfolds

Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell on Thursday stressed again that the U.S. central bank can be patient in approving any further rate increases as officials gauge whether the U.S. economy will slow this year, as some in financial markets worry, or continue motoring ahead as the Fed itself expects. Powell’s second appearance in less than a week generated a subdued response in financial markets, a sign he may have found his footing in how to describe central bank policy without surprising investors. Several of his recent appearances have generated large market swings in both directions. With no sign of excessive inflation or outsized risk in financial markets, Powell said the Fed would be “waiting and watching” in coming months. “Especially with inflation low and under control, we have the ability to be patient and watch patiently and carefully as we … figure out which of these two narratives is going to be the story of 2019,” Powell said at the Economic Club of Washington.   WATCH: Despite Volatility in Retail Stocks, US Officials Predict Continued Growth The S&P 500 edged up 0.45 percent on Thursday, while yields on Treasury securities were unchanged. In contrast, his remarks in his three previous appearances since late November moved stocks an average of 2.4 percent in either direction, and his comments last Friday spurred the largest market reaction yet to any of his 17 public appearances since taking office last February. The S&P gained 3.43 percent, and the yield on the 10-year Treasury note …

Smartphones Use Apps as Depression Detectives

Could the devices being blamed for teen depression be useful in revealing it? Studies have linked heavy smartphone use with worsening teen mental health. But as teens spend time on sites like Instagram, Snapchat and YouTube, they also leave digital trails that may offer signs about their mental well-being. Experts say possible warning signs include changes in writing speed, voice quality, word choice and how often a student stays home from school. There are more than 1,000 smartphone “biomarkers,” said Dr. Thomas Insel, former head of the National Institute of Mental Health, which is the largest mental health research organization in the world. Insel is a leader in the smartphone psychiatry movement. Researchers are testing smartphone apps that use artificial intelligence, or AI, to predict depression and possible self-harm. Using smartphones as mental health detectors require permission from users to download an app, and permission could be revoked any time. Nick Allen, a psychologist at the University of Oregon, has created an app being tested on young people who have attempted suicide. Allen says the biggest barrier is discerning the mental health crisis signals in the information on people’s phones. Suicide is the second leading cause of death for people between the ages of 10 and 34 in the United States. By 2015, suicide rates among teen boys rose to 14 in every 100,000 and five in every 100,000 people, among girls. A recent study suggested a rise in smartphone use has probably worsened the crisis. People with mental illness, …

Scientists: Ocean Temperatures Rising Faster Than Previously Thought

The world’s oceans are rising in temperature faster than previously believed as they absorb most of the world’s growing climate-changing emissions, scientists said Thursday. Ocean heat – recorded by thousands of floating robots – has been setting records repeatedly over the last decade, with 2018 expected to be the hottest year yet, displacing the 2017 record, according to an analysis by the Chinese Academy of Sciences. That is driving sea level rise, as oceans warm and expand, and helping fuel more intense hurricanes and other extreme weather, scientists warn. The warming, measured since 1960, is faster than predicted by scientists in a 2013 Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change report that looked at ocean warming, according to the study, published this week in the journal Science. “It’s mainly driven by the accumulation of greenhouse gases such as carbon dioxide in the atmosphere due to human activities,” said Lijing Cheng, a lead author of the study from the Chinese Academy of Sciences. The increasing rate of ocean warming “is simply a signature of increasing greenhouse gases in the atmosphere,” Cheng said. Leading climate scientists said in October that the world has about 12 years left to shift the world away from still rising emission toward cleaner renewable energy systems, or risk facing some of the worst impacts of climate change. Those include worsening water and food shortages, stronger storms, heatwaves and other extreme weather, and rising seas. For the last 13 years, an ocean observing system called Argo has been used to …

Protectionism, Dysfunction Could Hurt US Businesses, Warns Chamber of Commerce

Rising global authoritarianism, trade protectionism and the weakening of global institutions threaten U.S. businesses, the head of the U.S. Chamber of Commerce warned Thursday. In his annual address, Chamber of Commerce CEO Tom Donohue said for now the U.S. economy is strong and business owners are consistently optimistic, crediting “deregulation and tax reform.” But Donohue also defended the system of alliances and multilateral institutions set up by the United States after World War II – an implicit criticism of U.S. President Donald Trump’s “America First” policies. “The U.S. and our allies spent the last 70 years working to expand democracy and freedom,” Donohue said. “Today, we face the task of rebuilding domestic consensus for supporting democracy abroad.” Donohue also warned against domestic political dysfunction, including the inability of U.S. lawmakers to pass immigration reform. The comments come amid a prolonged partial government shutdown related to President Donald Trump’s demand for Congress to provide funds to build a wall on the southern U.S. border. Building the wall would fulfill a key campaign promise for Trump, who regularly portrays immigrants as a threat. Though he didn’t criticize Trump directly, Donohue said immigrants are crucial to the U.S. economy. “Employers don’t have the workers they need at every skill level in key industries such as health, agriculture, manufacturing, and transportation,” Donohue said. “Our nation must continue to attract and welcome industrious and innovative people from all over the world.” U.S. lawmakers, he said, should reach a compromise that would provide legal protection for …

Healthy Baby Born to DRC Mom who Recovered from Ebola

Congo’s Health Ministry says a baby has been born to a mother who recovered from the Ebola virus — a bright spot in an outbreak that is the second-deadliest in history. The Health Ministry tweeted a photo of “baby Sylvana” in her smiling mother’s arms. The ministry says the baby is the first in this outbreak born to a mother who has recovered. This is rare, though babies have been born to Ebola survivors in previous outbreaks.   Baby Sylvana was born on Sunday at an Ebola treatment center in Beni, a troubled city where rebel attacks have threatened health workers’ attempts to contain the outbreak.   The Health Ministry says that “she is in good health and is not infected with Ebola.”   This outbreak has killed more than 330 people.     …

China Says Trade Talks are Making Progress

China’s Commerce Ministry says that the United States and Beijing made progress in discussions about structural issues such as forced technology transfers and intellectual property rights during trade talks this week. But the lack of details from both sides following the meetings highlights the uncertainty that remains, analysts say. The talks, which were originally scheduled to wrap up on Tuesday stretched to the evening and into Wednesday.   U.S. officials have said the talks are going well, a point Commerce Ministry spokesman Gao Feng echoed on Thursday at a regular briefing.   “The length of the meetings shows that both sides were serious and sincere about the talks,” he said. “Structural issues were an important part of this round of talks and there has been progress in these areas.”   Gao did not comment, however, on whether he was confident that the talks could be wrapped up in the 90-day period laid out by President Donald Trump and China’s Xi Jinping.   Also, he did not say when the next round of talks might be held or who might attend, only that discussions between the two sides continue.   In early December, Washington and Beijing agreed to hold off on raising tariffs and to try and reach a deal before the beginning of March. Structural issues and concerns about barriers to investment in China are seen as some of the biggest obstacles to the deal.   On Wednesday, White House spokeswoman Sarah Sanders told the U.S cable news Fox Business …

Next Steps Unclear in US-China Trade Talks

The United States says talks in Beijing on ending a bruising trade war focused on Chinese promises to buy more American goods. But it gave no indication of progress on resolving disputes over Beijing’s technology ambitions and other thorny issues. China’s Ministry of Commerce said Thursday the two sides would “maintain close contact.” But neither side gave any indication of the next step during their 90-day cease-fire in a tariff fight that threatens to chill global economic growth. That uncertainty left Asian stock markets mixed Thursday. Share prices had risen Wednesday after President Donald Trump fueled optimism on Twitter about possible progress. The U.S. Trade Representative, which leads the American side of the talks, said negotiators focused on China’s pledge to buy a “substantial amount” of agricultural, energy, manufactured goods and other products and services. No signs of progress However, the USTR statement emphasized American insistence on “structural changes” in Chinese technology policy, market access, protection of foreign patents and copyrights and cybertheft of trade secrets. It gave no sign of progress in those areas.  Trump hiked tariffs on $250 billion of Chinese goods over complaints Beijing steals or pressures companies to hand over technology.  Washington also wants changes in an array of areas including the ruling Communist Party’s initiatives for government-led creation of global competitors in robotics, artificial intelligence and other industries. American leaders worry those plans might erode U.S. industrial leadership, but Chinese leaders see them as a path to prosperity and global influence and are reluctant to …

Building Boom Turning to Bust as Turkey’s Economy Slows

Deep in a provincial region of northwestern Turkey, it looks like a mirage — hundreds of luxury houses built in neat rows, their pointed towers somewhere between French chateau and Disney castle. Meant to provide luxurious accommodations for foreign buyers, the houses are however standing empty in what is anything but a fairy tale for their investors. The ambitious development has been hit by regional turmoil as well as the slump in the Turkish construction industry — a key sector — as the country’s economy heads towards what could be a hard landing in an intensifying downturn. After a long period of solid growth, Turkey’s economy contracted 1.1 percent in the third quarter, and many economists expect it will enter into recession this year. The country has been hit by high inflation and a currency crisis in August. The lira lost 28 percent of its value against the dollar in 2018 and markets are still unconvinced by the readiness of the government under President Recep Tayyip Erdogan to tackle underlying economic issues. The villas close to the town center of Mudurnu in the Bolu region are intended to resemble European architecture and are part of the Sarot Group’s Burj Al Babas project. But the development of 732 villas and a shopping center — which began in 2014 — is now in limbo as Sarot Group has sought bankruptcy protection. It is one of hundreds of Turkish companies that have done so as they seek cover from creditors and to restructure …

Cuba Cabinet Chiefs Ousted Amid Cash Crunch, Transportation Woes

Cuban President Miguel Diaz-Canel replaced his transport and finance ministers this week in his first Cabinet reshuffle since forming his own government in July and amid a cash crunch and growing discontent with the island’s transport sector. Cuban state media said Wednesday that Transport Minister Adel Yzquierdo, 73, and Finance Minister Lina Pedraza, 63, had been “freed from their roles” without explaining why, adding they would be given “other responsibilities.” Both had been originally been named by former President Raul Castro during his 10-year mandate and reconfirmed in their roles by Diaz-Canel, who took office from the 87-year-old in April. They will be replaced by the respective vice ministers in each ministry, Eduardo Rodriguez, 52, and Meisi Bolanos, 48. ​Public transport mess Some Cubans questioned the logic of promoting those who had also overseen strategies they deemed had failed. Transport is one of the top complaints of Cubans living in the capital, with new regulations vastly reducing the number of private collective taxis on the road that had supplemented the creaking public transport system. Many Cubans say they are struggling to get around and it is taking them far longer and costing more to do so. “Transport is awful,” said Maritza Carrion, waiting for a bus in the business district of Vedado. In one of his last public appearances, Yzquierdo announced on state television in December that Cuba was importing hundreds of microbuses and buses to alleviate the transport shortage. The government has periodically done so in the past, only …

Au Pairs Win $65.5M Settlement in Denver Lawsuit 

Young people from around the world who provided low-cost child care for American families will share in a proposed $65.5 million settlement of a lawsuit brought by a dozen former au pairs against the companies that bring the workers to the United States.    Nearly 100,000 au pairs, mostly women, who worked in American homes over the past decade will be entitled to payment under the proposed settlement filed in Denver federal court Wednesday, a month before the case brought by a dozen former au pairs from Colombia, Australia, Germany, South Africa and Mexico was set to go to trial.     They claimed 15 companies authorized to bring au pairs to the United States colluded to keep their wages low, ignoring overtime and state minimum wage laws and treating the federal minimum wage for au pairs as a maximum amount they can earn. In some cases, the lawsuit said, families pushed the limits of their duties, requiring au pairs to do things like feed backyard chickens, help families move and do gardening, and not allowing them to eat with the family.    “This settlement, the hard-fought victory of our clients who fought for years on behalf of about 100,000 fellow au pairs, will be perhaps the largest settlement ever on behalf of minimum wage workers and will finally give au pairs the opportunity to seek higher wages and better working conditions,” said David Seligman, director of Denver-based Towards Justice, which filed the lawsuit in 2014. It was later litigated by …

Repeating Radio Waves From Deep Space Intrigue Scientists

Astronomers in Canada have detected a mysterious volley of radio waves from far outside our galaxy, according to two studies published Wednesday in Nature. What corner of the universe these powerful waves come from and the forces that produced them remain unknown. The so-called repeating fast radio bursts were identified during the trial run last summer of a built-for-purpose telescope running at only a fraction of its capacity. Known by its acronym CHIME, the world’s most powerful radio telescope, spread across an area as big as a football pitch, is poised to detect many more of the enigmatic pulses now that it is fully operational. “At the end of the year, we may have found 1,000 bursts,” said Deborah Good, a PhD student at the University of British Columbia and one of 50 scientists from five institutions involved in the research. High energy bursts Fast radio bursts (FRBs) flash only for a micro-instant, but can emit as much energy as the sun does in 10,000 years. Exactly what causes these high-energy surges of long waves at the far end of the electromagnetic spectrum remains the subject of intense debate. More than 60 bursts have been cataloged since 2007, but only one other, observed in 2012 at the Arecibo Observatory in Puerto Rico, was a repeater. “FRBs, it seems, are likely generated in dense, turbulent regions of host galaxies,” Shriharsh Tendulkar, a corresponding author for both studies and an astronomer at McGill University, told AFP. Cosmic convulsions created by the turbulent …

Price Tag Proposed in US for Tailpipe CO2 Emissions

Drivers on the U.S. East Coast may soon start paying for their climate pollution. Nine states and the District of Columbia have announced plans to introduce a system that puts a price on the carbon dioxide produced from burning gasoline and diesel fuel. As the federal government pulls back from taking action on climate change, the proposal is an example of how states and cities are aiming to move forward. Details are slim at this point, but the Transportation and Climate Initiative would likely require fuel suppliers to pay for each ton of carbon dioxide that burning their products would produce. Costs would presumably be passed on to consumers. The announcement says revenues would go toward improving transportation infrastructure and low-emissions alternatives to cars, trucks and buses. The program could raise $1.5 billion to $6 billion per year, by one estimate. “You can imagine, that could do a lot to modernize transportation infrastructure, improve mass transit, build out electric transportation options,” said Fatima Ahmad at the Center for Climate and Energy Solutions, based in Washington, D.C. Reducing traffic congestion, “which is legendary in this area,” is a priority for the region’s lawmakers, she added. Those investments could create an estimated 91,000 to 125,000 new jobs. Transportation is the largest source of greenhouse gas emissions in the United States. While electric utilities have cut production of carbon dioxide by switching from coal to natural gas and renewables, emissions from the transportation sector have been growing since 2012. Following California California is …

Bangkok Fights Floods with Thirsty Landscaping

When Bangkok’s oldest university called for ideas for a symbol to mark its centenary year, landscape architect Kotchakorn Voraakhom successfully pitched a design for a park. It was intended not only as a welcome green space in the middle of the congested city of about 10 million people, but as a place that could also retain large amounts of water, reducing monsoon flooding around Chulalongkorn University. Parks and “green roofs” planted with vegetation soak up rain during the annual monsoon and help dense urban centers like Bangkok adapt to climate change, Kotchakorn said. “We need to be thinking about everything we build in the context of mitigating climate-change impact. It can’t be just about aesthetics, but also about serving a purpose,” she said. “This was Bangkok’s first park in many years, so we had to make it count,” she told the Thomson Reuters Foundation. Bangkok, built on the floodplains of the Chao Phraya River, is expected to be one of the urban areas hit hardest by warming temperatures. Nearly 40 percent of Bangkok may be inundated each year as soon as 2030 due to more extreme rainfall, according to the World Bank. The city, once a network of canals that earned it the moniker “Venice of the East,” has filled in many of those water channels for construction, and is sinking by more than 1 centimeter (0.4 inches) each year, according to climate experts. Flooding in many parts of the city is common during the annual monsoon. The rains in …

Images From Space Help Map Extreme Poverty

The fight against poverty is getting help from a new direction: up. Satellite imagery is helping researchers map areas of extreme poverty. It may help officials identify faster and more accurately when development policies and programs are working, and when they aren’t. Eliminating extreme poverty by 2030 is the first of the 17 Sustainable Development Goals adopted by the United Nations in 2015. Experts usually measure poverty by using census data and household surveys. But these tools are expensive, time-consuming and labor-intensive. Countries typically do them only once every several years. On the other hand, satellites map the entire surface of the globe at high resolution every several days. The imagery is getting better and cheaper as a growing number of public and private satellite networks go into service. What satellites see Researchers have used the brightness of lights in nighttime photos to estimate a region’s economic activity. Others have applied machine learning to identify richer and poorer villages from satellite imagery. Another group sorted wealthy and impoverished villages and neighborhoods based on building density and vegetation cover. A new study takes the most detailed look to date. Within a single village, it distinguished the poorest individual households from their wealthier neighbors with 62 percent accuracy. The study focuses on Sauri, a village in rural Kenya that was part of the Millennium Villages Project, a large-scale poverty alleviation experiment. Detailed information on each household’s income and assets was collected in 2005. In satellite images of the village, researchers measured the …

Experimental App Might Spot Drug Overdoses in Time to Help

Too often people die of an opioid overdose because no one is around to notice they’re in trouble. Now scientists are creating a smartphone app that beams sound waves to measure breathing — and summon help if it stops. The app is still experimental. But in a novel test, the Second Chance app detected early signs of overdose in the critical minutes after people injected heroin or other illegal drugs, researchers reported Wednesday. One question is whether most drug users would pull out their phone and switch on an app before shooting up. The University of Washington research team contends it could offer a much-needed tool for people who haven’t yet found addiction treatment. “They’re not trying to kill themselves — they’re addicted to these drugs. They have an incentive to be safe,” said Shyamnath Gollakota, an engineering and computer science associate professor whose lab turns regular cellphones into temporary sonar devices. But an emergency room physician who regularly cares for overdose patients wonders how many people would try such a device. “This is an innovative way to attack the problem,” said Dr. Zachary Dezman of the University of Maryland School of Medicine, who wasn’t involved in the research. Still, “I don’t know if many folks who use substances are going to have the forethought to prepare,” he added. More than 47,000 people in the U.S. died of opioid overdoses in 2017. The drugs suppress breathing but a medicine called naloxone can save victims — if it reaches them in …

Britain Will no Longer be Bound by EU Sanctions After Brexit

With the March deadline approaching for Britain to depart the European Union, there are concerns that Britain’s exit could undermine Western sanctions against countries like Iran, Syria and North Korea. Analysts note that Britain has been influential in persuading the EU to take action, saying there are risks Britain will seek a different path as it carves out new economic and strategic partnerships. “Some estimates hold that up to 80 percent of the EU’s sanctions that are in place have been put forward or suggested by the UK,” said Erica Moret, chair of the Geneva International Sanctions Network. She says Britain’s future absence from EU meetings will impact the bloc’s future relations. “The UK is also a very important player of course as a leading economic and political power, a soft power player in the world. Also the City of London means that financial sanctions are rendered much stronger through the UK’s participation.” Britain was quick to coordinate expulsions of Russian diplomats among EU allies following the nerve agent attack in the city of Salisbury last year against a former double agent, an incident London blamed on Moscow. Through EU membership, Britain enforces common sanctions against several other states and individuals, such as Syrian officials accused of war crimes. After the Brexit deadline day on March 29, Britain will be free to implement its own sanctions. “I wouldn’t see this happening in the short term, especially because again both sides have said they are committed to EU sanctions and they …

Курс гривні продовжує падіння – НБУ

Гривня продовжує падіння до євро і долара, свідчать дані на сайті Національного банку України. На 10 січня офіційна вартість одного долара встановлена на рівні 28 гривень 12 копійок, що на 10 копійок більше, ніж попереднього дня. Євро зріс на 16 копійок – до 32 гривень 21 копійки. …

У 2018 році інфляція становила 9,8% – Держстат

У 2018 році інфляція на споживчому ринку становила 9,8%, свідчать дані на сайті Державної служби статистики України. За цією інформацією, у 2018 році базова інфляція становила 8,7%. У Національному банку України прогнозували, що у 2018 році інфляція складе понад 8%. За даними Держстату, у 2017 році споживча інфляція становила 13,7%. Індекс споживчих цін є показником зміни в часі цін і тарифів на товари та послуги, які купує населення для невиробничого споживання. Базовий індекс споживчих цін показує стійку динаміку цін з мінімізацією короткострокових нерівномірних змін цін, викликаних шоками пропозиції та адміністративним регулюванням. …

Will Post-Brexit Britain Affect EU Sanctions Against Iran, Others?

Concerns have arisen that European sanctions against countries like Iran, Syria and North Korea could be undermined by Britain’s upcoming departure from the European Union. Britain will be free to implement its own sanctions regime — and while both Brussels and London insist they will continue to work together, analysts say there are risks that Britain will seek a different path as it carves out new economic and strategic partnerships after Brexit. Henry Ridgwell reports from London. …

More Fed Officials Say Caution Is Needed Before More Rate Hikes

Another clutch of U.S. Federal Reserve officials said Wednesday they would be cautious about any further increases in interest rates so that the central bank could assess growing risks to an otherwise solid U.S. economic outlook. The presidents of three of the 12 Fed regional banks, from Chicago, St. Louis and Atlanta, all pointed to a need for greater clarity on the state of the economy before extending the central bank’s rate hike campaign into a fourth year. Two of the three, Charles Evans of Chicago and James Bullard of St. Louis, are voting members this year on the Federal Open Market Committee, the bank’s policy-setting panel. Bullard has long been critical of the Fed’s rate increases, begun in December 2015, but the caution from Evans is new, even if he still asserted that rates probably need to rise more. The remarks from the three come less than a week after Fed Chairman Jerome Powell eased market concerns that policymakers were ignoring signs of an economic slowdown. Powell said he was aware of the risks and would be patient and flexible in policy decisions this year. The new tone of caution comes after the U.S. stock market dropped precipitously in the fourth quarter of 2018, suffering its worst December performance since the Great Depression. Other signs of tightening financial conditions surfaced as well, including a sharp slowdown in issuance of corporate bonds. Evans has been among the most vocal backers of gradually tightening U.S. monetary policy. In a speech in …

Amazon CEO Jeff Bezos, Wife MacKenzie Set to Divorce

Amazon.com Inc. Chief Executive Jeff Bezos and wife MacKenzie Bezos have decided to divorce after a long trial separation, Bezos said on Wednesday in a joint statement by the couple on Twitter. Amazon.com again became Wall Street’s most valuable company this week, surpassing Microsoft Inc. Bezos’ fortune has soared to more than $160 billion, thanks to his stake in Amazon. From modest beginnings as an online bookseller, Bezos and Amazon branched out into almost every product category available, ending up taking on established retail giants such as Wal-Mart Stores Inc. Bezos founded Amazon in 1994. Under Bezos, Amazon launched the Kindle e-reader and revolutionized the way books are distributed and read. The company has also been a pioneer in cloud computing.   In November, Amazon picked America’s financial and political capitals for massive new offices, branching out from its home base in Seattle with plans to create more than 25,000 jobs in both New York City and an area just outside Washington, D.C.       …

Somali Fishermen Decry Licensing Chinese Vessels

Starting this month, Chinese fishing vessels are allowed to exploit the open waters off the Somali coast, following the granting of licenses by Somalia’s government last month. Somali authorities say the permits will reduce illegal foreign fishing and help boost the economy.  But Somali fishermen worry the Chinese vessels now have the license to dominate the trade.  Mohamed Sheikh Nor reports from Mogadishu. …

Zimbabwe Church, Health Ministry Launch Anti-Drug Campaign

A group of concerned Zimbabweans has started an anti-alcohol and drug campaign, targeting communities in which unemployed young people resort to drinking and using narcotics to alleviate the stress of not having work. Those involved in the campaign say the solution lies largely with improving the country’s moribund economy. Fewer than three in 10 young Zimbabweans have steady jobs. Many are idle and see no economic opportunity. For some, that leads to problems with alcohol and drugs.  Church leaders, community leaders, and government officials have started warning youths of the impact of drug and alcohol abuse in Zimbabwe and its effect on their physical wellbeing and mental health. With drug use growing in Zimbabwe, President Emmerson Mnangagwa’s government has called for an all-stakeholders meeting on February 1 to come up with possible solutions. Zimbabwe’s deputy director of Mental Health Services, Dr. Chido Rwafa, says the government cannot deal with the problem of substance abuse alone. “Alcohol and substance use is a rising problem in all of Africa, and also in Zimbabwe, and it has become one of our top three diagnoses that we are seeing in our mental health unit, so it is becoming a problem. We need a coordinated approach to this problem. It is a multi-sectorial problem. We need a combined effort between government, between non-governmental organizations, with the community itself,” Rwafa said. Youths are susceptible to peer pressure and can easily gain access to drugs, says Dr. Rwafa. Once hooked on drugs, they also become more likely …